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NEW YORK – Consumer confidence in the United States fell sharply in February, marking its most significant decline since August 2021, according to the latest report from The Conference Board. The Consumer Confidence Index dropped 7.0 points to 98.3, reflecting growing concerns about future economic conditions. The Present Situation Index, which gauges current business and labor market conditions, also declined by 3.4 points to 136.5. However, the most significant drop occurred in the Expectations Index, which measures short-term outlooks, falling 9.3 points to 72.9—below the critical 80-point threshold that often signals a looming recession.
“In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “This is the third consecutive month of decline, bringing the Index to the lower end of its range since 2022. While consumers had a slightly improved view of present business conditions, their outlook on employment and future income deteriorated significantly.”
Consumer confidence weakened across all age groups, with the steepest decline among those aged 35 to 55. Similarly, confidence fell across most income groups, except for households earning under $15,000 and those earning between $100,000 and $125,000 annually.
The report also highlighted growing inflation concerns, as 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% in January to 6% in February. Consumers pointed to rising prices of essential goods, including eggs, and the anticipated impact of new tariffs as key factors driving their concerns. Discussions of trade and tariffs in survey responses spiked to levels last seen in 2019. Additionally, comments about the Biden administration’s policies dominated consumer sentiment.
Consumer assessments of their own financial situations weakened in February, retreating from the highs recorded in January. More respondents also anticipated a recession within the next 12 months, reaching a nine-month high. Meanwhile, optimism about the stock market faded, with only 46.8% expecting stock prices to rise in the coming year, down from 54.2% in January. By contrast, 32.8% expected stock prices to decline, an increase from 24.8% in the previous month. Additionally, expectations for higher interest rates over the next year rose, with 51.7% of respondents predicting an increase, while only 24% expected a decrease.
On a six-month moving average basis, consumer plans to purchase homes showed some recovery, likely due to recent declines in mortgage rates. However, plans to buy cars and big-ticket electronics declined, with TVs and other electronic items seeing the most notable drop in purchasing interest.
Consumers also shifted their spending priorities, favoring personal and health care services and live entertainment while reducing their focus on streaming services and travel. Notably, vacation plans continued to decline.
In terms of employment, confidence in the job market softened. The percentage of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” fell to 33.4%, down from 33.9% in January. Meanwhile, the share of those who said jobs were “hard to get” rose to 16.3% from 14.5%.
Looking ahead, 20.2% of consumers expect business conditions to improve, down slightly from 20.8% in January, while 26.7% expect conditions to worsen, a significant jump from 19.6%. The percentage of consumers expecting more jobs to be available fell to 18.4%, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased to 25.9%.
The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted online by Toluna, a global technology firm specializing in consumer insights and market research. The preliminary February results were based on data collected up to February 19, 2025.
