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WASHINGTON—In January, U.S. retail sales experienced a slowdown following a strong holiday shopping season, but they still indicated year-over-year growth, as reported today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Jack Kleinhenz, Chief Economist at the National Retail Federation, noted that the decline was anticipated due to robust consumer activity during the 2024 holiday season.
“It’s reasonable to expect some slowdown from the vigorous 2024 holiday season, so January’s numbers are not a surprise and don’t contradict the consumer spending trends we experienced,” Kleinhenz said. “The slower spending reflects weaker payroll growth in January, and higher prices remain a challenge for most households. Cold weather across much of the country and wildfires in California also likely impacted consumer activity. Nonetheless, these results point to a stable economy and provide a solid start to 2025.”
The Census Bureau reports that retail sales in January fell 0.9% when adjusted for seasonal fluctuations compared to the previous month but showed a 4.2% increase compared to the same month last year. This comes after December’s month-over-month rise of 0.7% and a year-over-year increase of 4.4%.
NRF’s measure of core retail sales—excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants—showed a similar trend, with a 0.9% month-over-month decline but a 4% year-over-year increase. On a three-month moving average, core retail sales rose 4.1% year over year.
For the 2024 holiday season, core retail sales grew 4% yearly, contributing to an overall 3.6% increase.
Additionally, data from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported a 1.27% seasonally adjusted month-over-month decline in core retail sales for January but a 5.72% unadjusted year-over-year increase. In comparison, December saw core retail sales rise by 2.19% month over month and 8.41% year over year.
