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Washington – Retail sales in January saw a modest decline compared to the bustling holiday season but posted significant year-over-year gains, according to the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions. The report, released today by the National Retail Federation, highlights a resilient consumer base supported by a strong job market and wage growth outpacing inflation.
The January results follow a robust 2024 holiday season, during which core retail sales grew 4% yearly. Core retail sales increased by 3.6%, reflecting steady consumer demand despite economic uncertainties.
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, decreased by 1.07% on a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis but rose by 5.44% unadjusted year over year in January. This follows December’s gains of 1.74% month over month and 7.24% year over year. Core retail sales, which exclude restaurants, automobile dealers, and gasoline stations, fell by 1.27% month over month but increased by 5.72% year over year, compared to December’s increases of 2.19% and 8.41%, respectively.
“Consumers pulled back in January, taking a breather after a stronger-than-expected holiday season,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Despite the monthly decline, the year-over-year increases reflect overall consumer strength as a strong job market and wage gains above the rate of inflation continue to support spending. We’re seeing a ‘choiceful’ and value-conscious consumer who is rotating spending across goods and services and essentials and non-essentials, boosting some sectors while causing challenges in others.”
The Retail Monitor utilizes anonymized credit and debit card transaction data from Affinity Solutions, providing a clearer and more dependable insight into consumer spending compared to traditional survey approaches. Although the data indicates a slowdown after the holiday season, it also reveals sustained consumer confidence and spending ability.
Key sector highlights
In January, year-over-year sales increased in seven of the nine retail categories, with online sales, health and personal care stores, and clothing and accessories stores at the forefront. Additionally, three categories recorded a rise in monthly sales.
- Online and other non-store sales: Up 0.44% monthly and up 30.49% yearly.
- Health and personal care stores: Up 0.77% month over month and up 10.39% year over year.
- Clothing and accessories stores: Down 2.96% month over month but up 7.67% year over year.
- General merchandise stores: Down 2.43% month over month but up 7.53% year over year.
- Grocery and beverage stores: Down 0.23% month over month but up 5.65% year over year.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores: Down 1.89% month over month but up 2.82% year over year.
- Electronics and appliance stores: Down 1.46% month over month but up 1.57% year over year.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores: Down 2.03% month over month and down 0.27% year over year.
- Building and garden supply stores: Up 0.27% month over month but down 0.99% year over year.
