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WASHINGTON – Imports at the nation’s major container ports are expected to remain elevated as retailers work to bring in cargo ahead of mounting tariffs on China and potential trade restrictions on other countries, according to a Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“Supply chains are complex,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “Retailers continue to engage in diversification efforts. Unfortunately, it takes significant time to move supply chains, even if you can find available capacity. While we support the need to address the fentanyl crisis at our borders, new tariffs on China and other countries will mean higher prices for American families. Retailers have engaged in mitigation strategies to minimize the potential impact of tariffs, including frontloading of some products, but that can lead to increased challenges because of added warehousing and related costs. We hope to resolve our outstanding border security issues as quickly as possible because there will be a significant impact on the economy if increased tariffs are maintained and expanded.”
MMRRetailers have been accelerating imports of key products for several months, driven by the potential for an East Coast/Gulf Coast port strike in January and the prospect of new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Last Saturday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on most goods from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on goods from China. While tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods were suspended for 30 days on Monday, the tariffs on China took effect on Tuesday.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would initially have minimal impact on ports, as most imports from these nations arrive via truck, rail, or pipeline. However, in the long term, tariffs on goods with final manufacturing in Canada or Mexico but originating elsewhere could drive an increase in direct maritime imports to the U.S. Additionally, he warned that if tariffs on Asian and European goods persist, consumer demand may decline, leading to reduced port activity.
“At this stage, the situation is fluid, and it’s too early to know if the tariffs will be implemented, removed, or further delayed,” Hackett said. “As such, our view of North American imports has not changed significantly for the next six months.”
Record-breaking port activity
In December, U.S. ports monitored by Global Port Tracker handled 2.14 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs). Although final data from the Port of New York and New Jersey and the Port of Miami are still pending, this figure represents a 0.9% decrease from November but a 14.4% increase year over year, marking the busiest December on record.
For 2024, total imports reached 25.5 million TEUs, reflecting a 14.8% increase from 2023 and the highest level since 2021’s record of 25.8 million TEUs during the pandemic-driven surge.
While January figures have yet to be fully reported, Global Port Tracker projects imports at 2.11 million TEUs, up 7.8% yearly. February, traditionally the slowest month due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China, is forecast at 1.96 million TEUs, a slight 0.2% increase from last year. Projections for the coming months include:
March: 2.14 million TEUs (+11.1% YoY)
April: 2.18 million TEUs (+8.2% YoY)
May: 2.19 million TEUs (+5.4% YoY)
June: 2.13 million TEUs (-0.6% YoY)
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for major U.S. ports, including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
